> An attacker doesn't get to attack client's HTTP stack without first piercing protection offered by TLS.

You misunderstand: this means more attack surface.

The attacker can mess with the far more complex and fragile TLS stack, and any attacker controlling a server or server payload can also attack the HTTP stack.

Have you recently inspected who owns and operates every single mirror in the mirror list? None of these are trusted by you or by the distro, they're just random third parties - the trust is solely in the package and index signatures of the content they're mirroring.

I'm not suggesting not using HTTPS, but it just objectively wrong to consider it to have reduced your attack surface. At the same time most of its security guarantees are insufficient and useless for this particular task, so in this case the trade-off is solely privacy for complexity.