My (non-economist) understanding was that the silver price spikes were caused by supply issues (China export restrictions, tariffs) during rising demand (and speculation), and not by a rush to replace fiat? A bit surprised the author didn’t mention that at all.
I have worked close to the trading floor at a financial institution, and there, precious metals are sometimes modeled more as currencies than as commodities for this reason.
It's not necessarily a rush to replace fiat, people just like the idea of a safe asset whos scarcity is secured.
This is why Burry, schiff, and a bunch of others keep predicting a collapse for decades on end. They're directionally right, they see a pattern but cant seem to time it right.
My prediction: I think this clusterfuck will keep going until
1. Unbearable irrationality: The US owes more money than there is money in the whole world. Measured using something like global M1 or M2 or something of that nature. Basically the system will need to reach a level of irrationality that even its biggest defenders can't cope with. OR,
2. Demographics: Most boomers die of old age after raiding whatever remains of the treasury.
Coincidentally, if my quick math is right, both of these scenarios are very likely to coincide within the next ~10 years or so. So make of that what you want...
Treasury's been broke for a while, their whole life in fact.
Now a small fraction are so well off that there will be some sizable inheritances to be passed down, and that's kind of a crap-shoot as to how much of that might lead to any economic stimulus.
Good call otherwise, 10 years or less sounds about right.
