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0 pointsthrow0101a2mo ago0 comments

> I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality.

The MN governor has called up their National Guard to help local law enforcement. The Pentagon is readying troops as well, presumably to help federal officials (ICE).

If both sides think they are following lawful orders, and neither side will give, what do you think will happen? (I have no answers.)

Further, there are folks that want a conflict because the West has become too decadent or something, and some conflict is needed to toughen up (?):

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Enlightenment

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toomuchtodo2mo ago

To note, I believe it's possible the ~1500 troops staging to Minnesota are not to assist with ICE operations, but to be air lifted via the 133rd Airlift Wing to Greenland. If interested in pursuing this, task some commercial satellite imaging.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing

throw0101c2mo ago

The troops that are being readied are actually the 11th Airborne Division:

* https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/

whose deputy commander is a Canadian, as a part of an exchange program:

* https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/

so I'm not sure how sending him to Greenland is going to work.

dragonwriter2mo ago

If Trump decides to go pull the plug on invading Greenland an uses the 11th Airborne, McBride would, I would assume, at a minimum, be relieved of his duties with the 11th Airborne and sent back to Canada, with either a subordinate ops staff officer or the Deputy Commanding General (Support) or some combination filling in for the duties of the Deputy Commanding General (Operations).

Depending on the details of timing of the operation and the US-Canada diplomatic situation as a result, what happens after he is relieved might not be as simple as a return to Canada, he might conceivably even end up as a POW.

throw0101aOP2mo ago

"Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment, officials say":

* https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-ala...

toomuchtodo2mo ago

What they say cannot be trusted, based on all available evidence, so you must infer the truth from actions.

whimsicalism2mo ago

Federal supremacy will win, the MN governor will not tell local LE directly to prevent federal agents enforcing federal law. I understand that law is not popular among many right now, but that is how it will play out.

There will not be civil war unless the military truly comes to assist in a Trump attempt to take power in 2028, which I think is very unlikely.

toomuchtodo2mo ago

The US military spent $4T-$6T in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing ~7k soldiers and ~52k wounded [1]. The US has one of the highest per capita of gun ownership and less than a million soldiers on US soil [2] [3]. Federal supremacy is based on the concept of the US military winning a conflict when they haven't won one since WW2. Force projection via military hardware and popping into Venezuela to extract its leader is a far different proposition than urban combat where your home and family is on the same soil.

I very much hope civil war is unlikely, but the federal government is vastly undermanned if a conflict occurs on US soil.

(have four siblings who have decades in combined military tours across all service branches except the coast guard, and I leverage them as a resource collectively in these matters)

[1] https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2016-10/costs-war-numbers

[2] https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-troops-are-in-the-us-m...

[3] https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-...

GJim2mo ago

> The US military spent $4T-$6T in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing ~7k soldiers and ~52k wounded

Denmark and the UK (to mention just two countries) also lost men fighting alongside America in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Look how they are being repaid.

Here is a rather sobering video from a British perspective: The Prime Minister responding to JD Vance by simply reading out in Parliament, the names of British soldiers who died supporting American operations.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-honours-uk-troops-killed-123537...

defen2mo ago

In what world are Iraq / Afghanistan good "comps" for the US military's performance in a civil war? Those countries had a virtually endless supply of young men who wanted to die for their cause, due to religious fanaticism, and were willing to do anything to make that happen. Who is going to fulfill that role in this hypothetical civil war? The US military was also faced with 10,000 km long supply lines and extremely rugged terrain where no one had any local knowledge.

mindslight2mo ago

> prevent federal agents enforcing federal law

Why is it that every normalizing "this is fine" commenter invariably drops into the same nonsense about "enforcing federal law" after a few short comments? The problem in Minnesota isn't that [some] federal laws are being enforced. Rather it's that federal law enforcement "officers" are abusing their immunity to work as lawless terror squads, abducting citizens and attacking protestors, backed up by a demented chief executive who has no respect for our American ideals of individual liberty or limited government.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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toomuchtodo2mo ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing

throw0101c2mo ago

The troops that are being readied are actually the 11th Airborne Division:

* https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/

whose deputy commander is a Canadian, as a part of an exchange program:

* https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/

so I'm not sure how sending him to Greenland is going to work.

dragonwriter2mo ago

throw0101aOP2mo ago

"Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment, officials say":

* https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-ala...

toomuchtodo2mo ago

What they say cannot be trusted, based on all available evidence, so you must infer the truth from actions.

whimsicalism2mo ago

There will not be civil war unless the military truly comes to assist in a Trump attempt to take power in 2028, which I think is very unlikely.

toomuchtodo2mo ago

I very much hope civil war is unlikely, but the federal government is vastly undermanned if a conflict occurs on US soil.

(have four siblings who have decades in combined military tours across all service branches except the coast guard, and I leverage them as a resource collectively in these matters)

[1] https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2016-10/costs-war-numbers

[2] https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-troops-are-in-the-us-m...

[3] https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-...

GJim2mo ago

> The US military spent $4T-$6T in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing ~7k soldiers and ~52k wounded

Denmark and the UK (to mention just two countries) also lost men fighting alongside America in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Look how they are being repaid.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-honours-uk-troops-killed-123537...

defen2mo ago

mindslight2mo ago

> prevent federal agents enforcing federal law

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