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0 pointspalmotea2mo ago0 comments

> The US economy is in a very precarious state, tensions along political ideology lines are high, and it would not take much more than a worsening of economic conditions plus a catalyst event to kick off armed unrest within the country.

Do you remember the situation that precipitated the Nazi takeover of Germany? Wasn't it hyperinflation and economic collapse? And you think it would be a good idea to push the US further in that direction?

You'll get worse, not better.

> A new civil war that drives the US to fragment into several independent regions over the course of the next ~five years would kind of be the best scenario from a global perspective.

Are you serious? That's an utterly insane idea. The best scenario from a global perspective is the US regains its stability. Europe is in no position to defend itself militarily, it relies on US support via NATO. I believe similar is true of Japan and other countries. A US civil war would only help Russia and China (Russia would gobble up Ukraine and who knows what else, China would take Taiwan and dominate/subjugate the rest of Asia, like Japan, in some fashion that non-Chinese nations wouldn't be happy with).

Also US polarization isn't regional (e.g. a big part is urban/rural). There's no "fragmentation into independent regions" that would really solve the problem.

0 comments

jacquesm2mo ago

The rest of the world is not going to be bullied into submission by one guy. If you can't take care of your own problem then eventually the world will turn away from you. This has the obvious potential of spiraling out of control but Trump is first and foremost the responsibility of the US population. The rest of the world will pick up the pieces. But he needs to be kept inside the lines or he'll run into people who are not just going to say 'yes' to his every whim.

palmoteaOP2mo ago

But "not getting bullied" is and entirely different thing than thinking a US civil war would be a good thing for the world or "reduce the global threat" (which is just bonkers).

Like, we're all amateurs on a web forum, but it's best to avoid monomaniacal, first-order thinking.

jacquesm2mo ago

Nobody hopes for that other than some guys that think that crashing the US lets them pick up the pieces like it happened with the USSR but on a much larger scale.

If you honestly believe that the EU wants the US to descend into civil war then you you have your parties grossly mixed up.

1 more reply

OrvalWintermute2mo ago

Russia was already slated to gobble up Ukraine.

Previously, it was content to treat UKR as a puppet, but after a color revolution and their man in Kiev was deposed, their hand was forced.

We're only now seeing it as an overt tug of war between the Great Powers

btbuildem2mo ago

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes, something like that? I think we are indeed watching the fascist takeover, and economic collapse is under way -- it's just when you watch a giant fall, they seem to fall oh ever so slowly, the scale distorts the speed until it's right there, then it's "suddenly" a cliff drop.

I agree with you, one dimension of the cultural split is urban / rural. The other dimension is actual culture as based on history -- deep south, southwest, cascadia, breadbasket, eastern seaboard -- these areas have different enough cultural heritage you could see them as separate regions if you squint hard enough. But the key deciding factor are the centers of military power -- where the major air, navy, and nuclear bases are. Overlay that over the cultural map, and you get the Independent Regions. The urban centers would define the voronoi centers of the subregions, with rural areas becoming more of no-mans-land, roving-bands boundary scenarios.

I mean yes it all sounds fantastical, but most unprecedented things do until they come to pass. There's so many patterns and echoes that gently indicate that this unfortunately may indeed be the way.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointspalmotea2mo ago0 comments

You'll get worse, not better.

> A new civil war that drives the US to fragment into several independent regions over the course of the next ~five years would kind of be the best scenario from a global perspective.

Also US polarization isn't regional (e.g. a big part is urban/rural). There's no "fragmentation into independent regions" that would really solve the problem.

0 comments

jacquesm2mo ago

palmoteaOP2mo ago

But "not getting bullied" is and entirely different thing than thinking a US civil war would be a good thing for the world or "reduce the global threat" (which is just bonkers).

Like, we're all amateurs on a web forum, but it's best to avoid monomaniacal, first-order thinking.

jacquesm2mo ago

Nobody hopes for that other than some guys that think that crashing the US lets them pick up the pieces like it happened with the USSR but on a much larger scale.

If you honestly believe that the EU wants the US to descend into civil war then you you have your parties grossly mixed up.

1 more reply

OrvalWintermute2mo ago

Russia was already slated to gobble up Ukraine.

Previously, it was content to treat UKR as a puppet, but after a color revolution and their man in Kiev was deposed, their hand was forced.

We're only now seeing it as an overt tug of war between the Great Powers

btbuildem2mo ago

I mean yes it all sounds fantastical, but most unprecedented things do until they come to pass. There's so many patterns and echoes that gently indicate that this unfortunately may indeed be the way.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse