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0 pointsR_D_Olivaw2mo ago0 comments

I wonder if regions that do this will see obvious signs of improvement that signal to the masses that "hmmm, maybe it IS worthwhile to compensate labor fairly and not just the gamblers at the top". And that novel, groundbreaking idea might spread to other regions.

Or, will top percent gamblers use their gambling earnings to create misinformation and dissuade other regions/areas to not even dare try this.

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toomuchtodo2mo ago

Total fertility rate is below replacement rate (~2.1) in most of the world, and continues to fall. There is no appetite to spend what is required to even try to materially impact these rates upward (South Korea spent $270B over 16 years and still sits around 0.7-0.8 tfr). Developed countries are already seeing labor shortages, which will continue as the world rapidly ages. There is no appetite for mass immigration from India and Africa to solve this, and India itself is already below replacement rate (1.9 tfr as of 2025). Cost of labor curve will rise into the future, so socioeconomic misinformation and propaganda is no match for structural demographics. We’ll run out of surplus labor before we run out of misinformation and propaganda.

The median age of a billionaire is around 67 years old, with data from recent years showing averages in the mid-to-high 60s. While 10% are under 50, over 40% are over 70. Everyone dies eventually.

https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf

https://www.bis.org/events/conf160624/goodhart_presentation....

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/dont-panic-over-falli...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45647855 (additional citations)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45029303 (additional citations)

R_D_OlivawOP2mo ago

I thank you for this data, it gives me some numbers to track and hopefully a way to be more objectively hopeful and positive about the future.

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