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0 pointszjzkshz3mo ago0 comments

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled

I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal.

> and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain

Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.

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tptacek3mo ago

I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked less.

Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!

zjzkshzOP3mo ago

What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal.

I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or any) dog is a sizable gain. Regarding Iran I think they know this. Their military is structured to operate in a post regime world. But that world doesn’t have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, which is the key goal Israel is after. Iran with nuclear weapons likely ensures the regimes existence for the foreseeable future.

lolc3mo ago

The general idea is that Iran would be more effective as a regional power if it wasn't ruled by islamists. And that at least the current government of Israel likes incompetent neighbours that make them look good.

Not a difficult argument in my view. Unless you're stuck believing what they say instead of observing what they do.

randomNumber73mo ago

It seems pretty reasonably that Israel would be happy with a neighbor that doesn't call for its annihilation out of ideologic reasons.

tptacek3mo ago

You literally just asked me to write that. I didn't have a point to make; I was answering a question you just asked.

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pazimzadeh3mo ago

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled

...proceeds to describe how Israel is a major government

tptacek3mo ago

And?

pazimzadeh3mo ago

Israel doesn't want Iran toppled?

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tptacek3mo ago

zjzkshzOP3mo ago

lolc3mo ago

Not a difficult argument in my view. Unless you're stuck believing what they say instead of observing what they do.

randomNumber73mo ago

It seems pretty reasonably that Israel would be happy with a neighbor that doesn't call for its annihilation out of ideologic reasons.

tptacek3mo ago

You literally just asked me to write that. I didn't have a point to make; I was answering a question you just asked.

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pazimzadeh3mo ago

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled

...proceeds to describe how Israel is a major government

tptacek3mo ago

And?

pazimzadeh3mo ago

Israel doesn't want Iran toppled?

1 more reply

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