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0 pointsswat5353mo ago0 comments

Iranian here (speaking from outside), fair but you have to consider the circumstances.

The regime currently is in its weakest position. Russia is busy with Ukraine, many of top IRGC commanders assassinated, HAMAS is in disarray, and their nuclear program has been crippled.

The water shortage was the straw that broke the camel's back. Years of sanctions, economical downturn and abuses by the Regime piled up to the point of no return.

Based on my last contact with my family, our people have crossed a line and there is no going back.

What Westerners don't realize is that if your back is against the wall, all you have left is putting your life on line.

People rather die trying because truthfully, what is the alternative?

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rootusrootus3mo ago

It does seem like there is a point -- and running out of water would be up there near that point, in addition to a collapse of the economy, where people get motivated to make change happen even at the risk to their own lives. I mean, you are going to die anyway, right?

I say that from the luxury of my very safe keyboard, of course. I hope your family is staying as safe as possible. Can't imagine the stress (I get tangled up enough in our own US gov't shenanigans and that pales in comparison to Iran right now).

EA-31673mo ago

If you look at the history of places like Iran, or more recently in Syria and Venezuela, the conditions you're describing are just as likely to lead to a mass exodus and a civil war of the remainders as anything like a successful revolution. The "Arab Spring" was also driven by issues with water and the subsequent impact on the local economic situations, and they KIND OF succeeded... for a while. Now it's all back the way it was, or worse.

The idea that misery inevitably leads to revolution is driven by narrative selection, not reality. In reality countries like the DPRK for example simply ate the cost of a million+ starving to death and then went 'happily' onward. There's a reason that successful and lasting revolutions are exceptional, not the rule.

amypetrik2143mo ago

Fellow Iranian here. Admiral in the Navy (my handle is to throw them off my trail). By the name of Admiral Ackbar. I want to warn the western states not to intervene during this unstable protests - the state is in fact more stable than ever -- It's a trap!

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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rootusrootus3mo ago

EA-31673mo ago

amypetrik2143mo ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse