Ukraine is an incredibly, systemically corrupt country where people steal from their own family and from themselves (due to cultural reasons to a large extent), where half the people don't speak their native language, and a good third is confused as to what their nationality was. A country that was the Europe's topmost shithole (after Moldova) ever since 1991, with deeply dilapidated infrastructure, defunct industry sold for scrap metal in the 1990s, and famously prevailng cynical, nihilist mindset. It is just like Russia but a lot more divided, and without oil.
Only thing that plays in favour of Ukrainians is that they have by necessity become tough people living through this hell for 35 years.
If Putin can't defeat Ukraine, idk how is he planning to go against Poland, or Finland.
Thousands of tanks, MLRS and artillery from soviet stock are gone - See https://www.youtube.com/@CovertCabal Covert Cabal who is counting it. Now Russian attacks are civilian vehicles and bikes, sometimes APC here or heavily drone proofed tank there.
Russia does not control sky over Ukraine, it can only lobe bombs and ballistic missiles from afar - compare it to what happened in Iran this summer when Israel was just dismantling Iranian AA defense, which is largely based on Russian assets.
Even worse, Russians barely control sky over Russia as Ukrainians are systematically dismantling their energy infrastructure.
Sure they can launch lot of drones every day, be it FPVs or Shaheds. But if Russian AA defense is possible to be dismantled in the same manner as Iranian one, then these drones will be quickly neutralized by destroying manufacturing and distributing and deploying facilities, the FPV and Shaheds will just run out. And then what?
Strikes on critical Russian oil infrastructure would likely speed this along.
https://www.energyintel.com/0000019b-082a-d02f-adfb-cebb5e2a...
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/09/russian-oil-prices...
You need to look up the definition of "native language".
One way it could dry up is to distract NATO or eu countries with a defense treaty, by something that feels like a real war but not serious enough. Enough that those countries finally say "Oh shit, no more weapons for UKR now we really need to bolster our own flank"
Then Ukraine falls and their 1 mil. of well experienced soldiers get force-conscripted into Putins army and Europe has a problem
