> I'm just not particularly optimistic that it will be allowed to happen at all
Maybe, but in a recent comment of mine I alluded to a "long-tail" of AIs popping up. So there's a possibility in one of those. But if no one has any money to invent or create, or they feel there is a risk in sharing, it won't really work too well.
I bet to get to AGI, humans will have to actively help: it can't be a parasitic relationship. People are pessimistic about AI, but why can't it lead to free energy, patent obsolescence (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNR_6aBQyDk), supernatural abilities and utopia instead? Wait those things will come, they will just remain with the special people in the "breakaway civilization," perhaps.