We keep seeing headlines framing higher retail spending as a sign of economic resilience. But the mechanics behind that spending look very different today:
Unit volumes are declining
BNPL is growing in essential categories
Credit card rollover rates are rising
Savings buffers are shrinking
If the marginal dollar of “growth” is now debt-financed, is the metric still meaningful?
I’m curious how others see it.
Is consumer spending still a valid indicator of economic strength, or should we be treating it as an obligation metric rather than a confidence metric?
