Appealing to common sense is insufficient for creating a sound policy or even a sound personal financial policy.

Your quip implies decisions based on financial risk, which is just probabilities of a certain category.

Given that the market doesn’t insure to hedge against your “tough question”, it suggests (though doesn’t prove) it can’t really answer that question.

But if your suggestion and quip wasn’t meant to be thought through and modeled, then carry on.

Edit: tl:dr; I’m trying to understand your question beyond vagaries, which you’ve so far refused to clarify. Therefore, nobody can really answer your question.