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0 pointsbespokedevelopr4mo ago0 comments

Wow so the polymarket insider bet was true then..

https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1oz6gjp/new...

0 comments

These prediction markets are so ripe for abuse it's unbelievable. People need to realize there are real people on the other side of these bets. Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stating "Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3" at the end of an earnings call. These types of bets shouldn't be allowed.

ATMLOTTOBEER4mo ago

It’s not really abuse though. These markets aggregate information; when an insider takes one side of a trade, they are selling their information about the true price (probability of the thing happening) to the market (and the price will move accordingly).

You’re spot on that people should think of who is on the other side of the trades they’re taking, and be extremely paranoid of being adversely selected.

Disallowing people from making terrible trades seems…paternalistic? Idk

simianwords4mo ago

You don’t get it. Allowing insiders to trade disincentivizes normal people from putting money. Why else is it not allowed in stock market?

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ethmarks4mo ago

The point of prediction markets isn't to be fair. They are not the stock market. The point of prediction markets is to predict. They provide a monetary incentive for people who are good at predicting stuff. Whether that's due to luck, analysis, insider knowledge, or the ability to influence the result is irrelevant. If you don't want to participate in an unfair market, don't participate in prediction markets.

giarc4mo ago

But what's the point of predicting how many times Elon will say "Trump" on an earnings call (or some random event Kalshi or Polymarket make up)? At least the stock market serves a purpose. People will claim "prediction markets are great for price discovery!" Ok. I'm so glad we found out the chance of Nicki Minaj saying "Bible" during some recent remarks. In case you were wondering, the chance peaked at around 45% and she did not say 'bible'! She passed up a great opportunity to buy the "yes" and make a ton of money!

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxminajmention/nicki-minaj/kxmina...

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suddenlybananas4mo ago

That argument works for insider training too.

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HDThoreaun4mo ago

I’m pretty sure that these model release date markets are made to be abused. They’re just a way to pay insiders to tell you when the model will be released.

The mention markets are pure degenerate gambling and everyone involved knows that

ATMLOTTOBEER4mo ago

Correct, and this is actually how all markets work in the sense that they allow for price discovery :)

ur-whale4mo ago

> people need to realize there are real people on the other side of these bets

None of whom were forced by anyone to place bets in the first place.

Dilettante_4mo ago

>Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stating "Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3" at the end of an earnings call.

For the kind of person playing these sorts of games, that actually really "hype".

FergusArgyll4mo ago

Abuse sounds bad, this is good! Now we have a sneak peek into the future, for free! Just don't bet on any markets where an insider has knowledge (or don't bet at all)

fresh_broccoli4mo ago

In hindsight, one possible reason to bet on November 18 was the deprecation date of older models: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1oom1lq/google...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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giarc4mo ago

ATMLOTTOBEER4mo ago

You’re spot on that people should think of who is on the other side of the trades they’re taking, and be extremely paranoid of being adversely selected.

Disallowing people from making terrible trades seems…paternalistic? Idk

simianwords4mo ago

You don’t get it. Allowing insiders to trade disincentivizes normal people from putting money. Why else is it not allowed in stock market?

1 more reply

ethmarks4mo ago

giarc4mo ago

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxminajmention/nicki-minaj/kxmina...

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suddenlybananas4mo ago

That argument works for insider training too.

1 more reply

HDThoreaun4mo ago

I’m pretty sure that these model release date markets are made to be abused. They’re just a way to pay insiders to tell you when the model will be released.

The mention markets are pure degenerate gambling and everyone involved knows that

ATMLOTTOBEER4mo ago

Correct, and this is actually how all markets work in the sense that they allow for price discovery :)

ur-whale4mo ago

> people need to realize there are real people on the other side of these bets

None of whom were forced by anyone to place bets in the first place.

Dilettante_4mo ago

>Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stating "Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3" at the end of an earnings call.

For the kind of person playing these sorts of games, that actually really "hype".

FergusArgyll4mo ago

Abuse sounds bad, this is good! Now we have a sneak peek into the future, for free! Just don't bet on any markets where an insider has knowledge (or don't bet at all)

fresh_broccoli4mo ago

In hindsight, one possible reason to bet on November 18 was the deprecation date of older models: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1oom1lq/google...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse