Is there someone with a better record then?

I’m not sure what timeline to place on that but there has to be a floor for how bad it can get for the regular man.

Shit is just expensive. Young people can’t buy houses, good jobs are drying up, and inflation isn’t stopping.

Historically I think the reality has been the opposite of that, economists have been extremely reluctant to make predictions of an oncoming recession. This was certainly true during the great recession when economists were denying that a recession was coming even after one had actually started. That is to say, economists could not even predict the present.

There are a few economists who are predictably gloomy ("permabears", I suppose Nouriel Roubini would qualify) and I guess now there is political pressure to predict a recession anytime the other political party is in power, but from my perspective, if mainstream economists are predicting a recession, that likely means the recession is almost over.