Yes, you can just do the math, and changing nothing about the US except transition to a European style universal system, the median family would face lower aggregate tax, out-of-paycheck, and out-of-pocket costs than they do now, with less health insecurity around unexpected events (either health or employment), unless the tax increases necessary were deliberately and perversely targeted to avoid that.
That’s a direct consequence of the difference in the macro-level costs: they aren’t separate, orthogonal concerns. People just have a hard time accepting that the US health care system is structurally constructed right now to waste vast hordes of money preventing people from accessing health care, but that’s exactly what it does.
