Am I the only one who’s delusional or the world has gone mad?
Because the current state of the art in Quantum can only factor 2 digit numbers (maybe) and are probably decades away or breaking traditional encryption or Bitcoin.
> Smart entities are able to extrapolate and understand that quantum computers will be able to crack encryption before 2030 due to accelerating advancements both in intelligence and quantum computers.
This is false. What “smart money” do you know that has indicated they believe this?
>Accelerating advancements, not linear.
Also false. What gives you the impression that this is true? Quantum computing is definitely not increasing at an exponential rate, and LLMs have already hit the top of the S-curve and new models are not exponentially better than previous models, they’re incrementally better.
> So smart money knows that there is not an unreasonable chance Bitcoin gets cracked at around 2027-2028.
Again false. Why do you believe that “smart money” believes this?
Could it be that you believe it, but smart money does not which is why they are still investing in Bitcoin?
Introducing quantum resistant addresses is possible via a soft-fork, so rather easy.
Work on it already started: https://github.com/jlopp/bips/blob/quantum_migration/bip-pos...
If capable quantum computers become more probable and the soft fork is not already happening, it will be accelerated. And then everybody will move their coins to quantum resistant addresses.
So it does not look like a major problem. It will lower the price a bit though. Because old, lost coins will be revived and come to the market.
There will also be some type of war around "code is law" because some people will suggest to invalidate old coins on non-quantum-resistant addresses. That will be interesting to watch.
Just like during 2008 lot of people noticed that there were issues in the market and assets. But stayed in as there was still money to be made. Honestly it really looks like same thing is now happening again, be it with AI or other type of lending. Cracks are showing, but there is not that much movement yet.
A significant amount of bitcoins are held by known entities (exchanges) so it's pretty trivial for institutions to keep their coins after a fork. Those of you self-hosting might have some losses.
However at the moment, the community seems to be leaning towards pay-for-quantum-resistance [0]
Advancements are more often logarithmic than geometric: a brief flurry of progress as easy barriers are overcome, followed by a long unsexy slog of incrementalism.
Bitcoin may well be broken someday, but the time scale is on decades, which is well beyond the horizon for high-volatility markets like Bitcoin
Also, you can’t really switch Bitcoin to quantum-proof algo. It’s pretty much inpossible.
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It is no different than beanie babies, baseball cards or any collectibles from the past that people thought would make them rich.
The power of bitcoin is in hodling - convincing people to never sell, so the price will keep going up ad infinitum. Once that belief fades away, the entire thing will collapse like a house of cards.
So to answer your question - bitcoin has not crashed yet because it is all about irrationality. Once rationality pops its head up and people start waking up from the dream, it will be over. The quantum computers have nothing to do with it. Not only the hodlers do not even understand bitcoin and crypto, but even if it were out already, people would not believe it until they would read it in the news and bitcoin would be already crashing. And likely even then they would just spam the internet with diamond hands and refuse to believe it is over(again, irrational behavior).
Personally, I absolutely hate that some-people, some-where, some-time ago, hijacked the idea of crypto currency and turned it into an investment instrument, which it is not. Crypto is a beautiful idea that would have worked miraculously if deployed into the real world as intended and we could have had nice things, but we got hoodwinked and it turned all crypto to shit.
How am I wrong?
Also, Bitcoin is more useful than beanie babies because Bitcoin is censorship resistant, but Beanies can be confiscated. You are fundamentally wrong that Bitcoin holds no intrinic value. Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is method of circumventimg censorship. Tell me how I am wrong and how Bitcoin’s intrinsic value doesn’t stem from censorship resistance due to decentralized nature. You can use GPT5-Pro deep research to aid your answer.
How are you right? do you believe in yourself enough to put your money at it? If not, this conversation makes no sense.
Why do you believe those, when the smart money obviously doesn't?
If the encryption is cracked, then who is to say who owns which Bitcoin? As soon as I try to transfer any coin that I own, I expose my public key, your "Quantum Computer" cracks it, and you offer a competing transaction with a higher fee to send the Bitcoin to your slush fund. No amount of software fixes can update this. In theory once an attack becomes feasible on the horizon they could update to post-quantum encryption and offer the ability to transfer from old-style addresses to new-style addresses, but this would be a herculean effort for everyone involved and would require all holders (not miners) to actively update their wallets. Basically infeasible.
^^^ Smart money is aware of this fact, yet real estate and gold aren’t outperforming Bitcoin. Is this truly alpha???
Seems to me like a great plan, for the big fish to consolidate their control of Bitcoin. At the expense of little people. Who they don't care about.
Breaking shors is a looooong way off.
You can code on quantum computers here for free:
See the recent research paper about recreating quantum factoring records using a dog, an abacus, and a vintage computer
Rent or buy?
>Institutions hold Bitcoin. Institutions are smart.
Come on! Especially financial institutions have a serious track record of ignoring obvious problems, outright fraud and monumental incompetence.
The main reason, ironically, is because it can not be regulated. This puts it in direct conflict with every government, who all desire control over their own currency. This guarantees that Bitcoin will only ever be used for things which can only happen outside a regulated banking system. It is also not particularly good at criminal transactions, since it is more transparent than a bank account. Here in Germany crypto is essentially illegal. Of course you can buy it, but transactions require you to deanonymize.
Another reason is of course that it has become an object of intense speculation, which creates high volatility. This drastically decreases it's usefulness as a currency, since holding Bitcoin is a major risk.
