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0 pointsbaq5mo ago0 comments

There is a serious possibility this isn’t a bubble. Too many people watched the big short and now call every bull a bubble; maybe the bubble was the dollar and it’s popping now instead.

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thenaturalist5mo ago

Have you looked in detail at the economics of this?

Career finance professionals are calling it a bubble, not due to their suddenly found deep technological expertise, but because public cos like FAANG et. al are engaging in typical bubble like behavior: Shifting capex away from their balance sheets into SPACs co-financed by private equity.

This is not a consumer debt bubble, it's gonna be a private market bubble.

But as all bubbles go, someones gonna be left holding the bag with society covering for the fallout.

It'll be a rate hike, it'll be some Fortune X00 enterprises cutting their non-ROI-AI-bleed or it'll be an AI-fanboy like Oracle over-leveraging themselves and then watching their credit default swaps going "Boom!" leading to a financing cut off.

baqOP5mo ago

It's possible, circular financing is definitely fishy, but OTOH every openai deal sama makes is swallowed by willing buyers at a fair market price. We'll be in a bubble when all the bears are dead and everyone accepts 'a new paradigm', not before; there's plenty of upside capitulation left judging by some hedge fund returns this year.

...and again, this is assuming AI capability stops growing exponentially in the widest possible sense (today, 50%-task-completion time horizon doubles ~7 months).

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