I can move the goalpost without relying on hallucinations or the ability to make fancy rethoric. Just make it about energy consumption, and the whole thing looks dumb again.
Humans can do these amazing things (like learning multiple languages) on a very tight energy budget. LLMs need millions of hours of training to deliver subpar results. If you consider the amount of resources poured into it, it's not that impressive.
If someone needs a measure and a prediction, let's make it then. LLMs will not surpass humans, given both are provided with the same energy budget, in a century. That means I am confident that, given the same energy budget as a human, it will take more than 100 years of development (I think it's more, but I'm being safe) to come up with something that can be trained to fool someone in a conversation.
Can you understand the energy argument from the intelligence perspective? This thing is big, dumb and wasteful. It just have more time (by cheating) to cover its bases. It can do some tricks and fool some people, but it's a whole different thing, and it is reasonable to not call it intelligent.