<it's not like 8 million tons of soybeans per month are magically getting created in Brazil>

Brazil increase in production this year is 5.3 million metric tons. So looks like Brazil can replace US exports to China without affecting existing customers.

Brazil’s 2025/26 Soy Crop Seen Growing 3% Versus the Previous Cycle

https://www.agriculture.com/partners-brazil-s-2025-26-soy-cr...