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0 pointsJumpCrisscross6mo ago0 comments

You’re refuting a fairly robust study with vibes.

> Syria didn't collapse because of sanctions

Nobody said it did.

> don't think there has ever been a case where a country, or its people, changed the regime because of sanctions. Never

Literally a source with a page number, and, in a neighbouring comment, a table with the specifics.

Like, if you had a button that could convert the world’s hot wars into mutual embargoes, would you not push it? Up the stakes: mutual embargo plus embargoed by their leading trade partner.

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mirzap6mo ago

No. I wouldn't. Because it makes it easier for the stronger power to dominate without hot wars. Sanctions cost the U.S. very little when used against Iran, but for Iranians they are extremely hard and disproportionately expensive. A hot war would be far more costly for the U.S., and the higher the expected cost, the less likely policymakers are to choose it.

JumpCrisscrossOP6mo ago

> A hot war would be far more costly for the U.S.

…we just had a hot war with Iran. It probably cost us less than our sanctions.

I’ll say this: you’re consistent in your position and I respect that. I just don’t think many people share the view that people getting physically torn apart by munitions is better than have a less-comfortable, possibly borderline, life.

mirzap6mo ago

My point exactly. It lasted 12 days. How much did it cost? How much you think would cost 5 years of war with Iran? And how much did sanctions cost Iranians (economy + lives) past 40 years. Afghanistan war costed 2t for 20 years of war. That number would be reached withing months in a war with Iran.

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0 pointsJumpCrisscross6mo ago0 comments

You’re refuting a fairly robust study with vibes.

> Syria didn't collapse because of sanctions

Nobody said it did.

> don't think there has ever been a case where a country, or its people, changed the regime because of sanctions. Never

Literally a source with a page number, and, in a neighbouring comment, a table with the specifics.

Like, if you had a button that could convert the world’s hot wars into mutual embargoes, would you not push it? Up the stakes: mutual embargo plus embargoed by their leading trade partner.

0 comments

mirzap6mo ago

JumpCrisscrossOP6mo ago

> A hot war would be far more costly for the U.S.

…we just had a hot war with Iran. It probably cost us less than our sanctions.

mirzap6mo ago

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