I think there’s a bit of parroting going around but LLMs are predictive and there’s a lot you can inuit a lot about how they behave just on that fact alone. Sure, calling it “token” prediction is oversimplifying things, but stating that, by their nature, LLMs are guessing at the next most likely thing in the scenario (next data structure needing to be coded up, next step in a process, next concept to cover in a paragraph, etc.) is a very useful mental model.

You’re being downvoted, perhaps because your tone is a little harsh, but you’re not wrong: people really are still making versions of the “stochastic parrots” argument. It comes up again and again, on hacker news and elsewhere. And yet a few months ago an LLM got gold on the Mathematical Olympiad. “Stochastic parrots” just isn’t a useful metaphor anymore.

I find AI hype as annoying as anyone, and LLMs do have all sorts of failure modes, some of which are related to how they are trained. But at this point they are doing things that many people (including me) would have flatly denied was possible with this architecture 3 years ago during the initial ChatGPT hype. When the facts change we need to change our opinions, and like you say, reckon anew with the thing that’s sitting in front of us.

Nah it can still be entirely on good faith.

Not everyone is an easily impressed and convinced that fancy autocomplete is going to suddenly spontaneously develop intelligence.