The EU is making moves right now to position itself as the preeminent center of world trade.
Losing that position will hurt Americans more than anyone else.
The EU being what it is considering to start planning to make a plan to take moves to plan these moves.
Then it will have to align those plans with all its members etc.
I can’t wait to see what will happen when German auto industry crashes. It will be a very very interesting domino fall. Unfortunately I’ll watch it from inside, so it won’t be fun, but it will be interesting nonetheless.
Export markets will of course collapse outside of the very high-end. But that has been slowly occurring over the last few years anyway.
You can’t have both..
Once that's complete and the dependence on the US is broken, expect more dramatic moves.
It generally punches below its geopolitical weight, but that’s because it was happy to follow the US when American policies were decent (not great, but good for trade and mostly good for stability). But that’s not a law of nature, things do change, even if it is slow compared to the modern news cycle.
At the same time, there are things to keep in mind:
- this is asking member-states to delegate some of their sovereignty, which is never all easy and always involves quite a bit of horse-trading
- the member-states are perfectly happy to fuck things up on their own and things like growth figures for the eurozone actually mask very different realities depending on the country and its government
- stagnation is a very western point of view, things are still changing quite a lot on the eastern side
- the reference point should be the same situation without the EU. I am not sure, for example, that things would be improved with a trade war between Germany and France, the baltics fending off for themselves, or each country having its own import requirements and sets of tariffs.
