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0 pointsspacephysics7mo ago0 comments

Especially given how the gov stats for unemployment rate and CPI have been changed over the years.

Example, if you dig into who we technically consider unemployed in that number, you’ll laugh.

Let’s say after 6 months of emails and ghost listings you take a break, you’re now considered “not in the labor force” which is the same category as retirees and full-time students. So that “improves” the unemployment rate

Not a hot take, but I think we’ve been in a recession/massive slowdown for much longer than the gov data shows

Willing to bet hedge funds have their own calculations of these metrics they keep secret as a market edge

0 comments

JumpCrisscross7mo ago

> that number

Anyone referring to unemployment data in the singular has not dug into the numbers.

mlinhares7mo ago

Odd Lots has done a lot of interviews with Fed members these past few days as they were in Jackson Hole and they all said that "now the data looks right" as they were talking to businesses everyone was saying they weren't hiring but the job numbers had remained high. One even said he'd expect to see even worse revisions in the coming months given the anecdotal data he's seeing in the wild.

So yeah, i'd say most of this AI stuff is bullshit, if it was really this good Sam Altman wouldn't be talking about building social networks.

WillPostForFood7mo ago

The data in the study shows a strong trend going back to 2022. Whether the more recent data gets revised or not, you can see a strong negative effect on young workers.

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