>> Most workers, and most work days, are just drudgery. Answering emails. Writing up quarterly plans. Reviewing metrics. Building applications that do something with data.

Yes. Those jobs are going to disappear. If your role's primary value is shuffling paper around an org, or putting minor edits on something before forwarding, your job is going to disappear to AI in the next 1-3 years.

Or AI-initiated human process optimization in the next 2-5 years, which I think is an underappreciated second wave.

To define that: if we 10x or 100x the productivity of certain roles, won't companies look at the remaining unaccelerated human speedbumps and ask "Is it really that important we have a person do that? Because it's now costing us substantial latency and throughput of the process as a whole."

And in many cases they'll likely conclude that no, it's not critical that a human be involved at that point. So poof those jobs as well.

As a result, we'll have many fewer humans being much more productive.

Tbd on whether that produces enough surplus (and equal allocation of it) to balance out the job losses.