"AI is getting better rapidly" is the current state of affairs. Arguing "AI is about to stop getting better" is the argument that requires strong evidence.
You've frog-boiled yourself into timelines where "No WORLD SHAKING AI launches in the past 4 months" means "AI is frozen". In 4 months, you will be shocked if AI doesn't have a major improvement every 2 months. In 6 months, you will be shocked if it doesn't have a major update ever 1 month.
It's hard to see exponential curves while you're on it, I'm not trying to fault you here. But it's really important to stretch yourself to try.
There's been the obvious notion that digitizing the world's information is not enough and that hasn't changed.
You assume everyone is “impressed”.
Llms getting better != a path to AGI.
… is it? I hear people saying that. I see “improvement”: the art generally has the right number of fingers more often, the text looks like text, the code agents don’t write stuff that even the linter says is wrong.
But I still see the wrong number of fingers sometimes. I still see the chat bots count the wrong number of letters in a word. I still see agents invent libraries that don’t exist.
I don’t know what “rapid” is supposed to mean here. It feels like Achilles and the Tortoise and also has the energy costs of a nation-state.
