> Firstly, if your prior is that every previous startup failed, what does that say about your future chances of success?

The prior is the market. It isn't sane to use your own prior experience. (Works both ways -- if your last startup did great, shouldn't assume next will).

> 4% of YC companies become unicorns. How many startups do you need to work for before you become part of the 4%? That number is not a feasible number of jobs for one lifetime.

The bar (and what the model is calculating) is Series A from top VC, not YC Seed funding. That significantly increases odds. Specifically, ~45% YC companies get Series A, so it's more like 10% chance of a YC Series A funded company becoming a unicorn (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/pulling-back-the-curtain-...).

Model is change jobs every 18 months if not booming. A 1 in 10 chance is quite reasonable over a career.

I agree there is an issue with the event being too rare, but you can't just look only at modal returns. 2/3 chance of $0 (the modal return) and 1/3 chance of $10 million profit is still pretty good odds to work with.