Your theory makes sense until it falls apart if you consider SE and Mini as the same category of small iPhones. If the only reason why Mini failed was bad launch time, then why haven't Apple launched anything small (SE or Mini) after 2022? Isn't 2024 or even 2025 the perfect time to launch an upgrade for SE or Mini? They now have enough data since the last launch of a small phone.
iPhone SE 1st gen 2016 (Discontinued 2018)
iPhone 12 Mini 2020 (Discontinued 2022)
iPhone SE 2nd gen 2020 (Discontinued 2022)
iPhone 13 Mini 2021 (Discontinued 2023)
iPhone SE 3rd gen 2022 (Discontinued 2025)