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0 pointsalwillis8mo ago0 comments

> And at the bottom it’s revealed that this costs $200/month.

I started with the pay-as-you go plan; I'm currently using the Claude Pro plan at $20/month which is great for my use case.

> And none of these AI companies are profitable. Imagine how much it will cost or how much it will be enshittified when the investors come looking for their returns.

I suspect investors will give AI companies a lot of runway. OpenAI went from $0 to over $10 billion in revenue in less than 3 years. I know that's not a profit but it bodes well for the future.

(As an aside, it took Microsoft 22 years to reach $10 billion in revenue.)

Anthropic went from $0 in 2021 to over $4 billion in about 3 years.

In comparison, it took Twitter about eleven years after its founding in 2006 to become profitable in 2017. And for much of that time, Twitter didn't have a viable business model.

I don't think investors are concerned.

Regarding lawsuits, I'm sure the AI companies will win some and lose some. Either way, after all is said and done, there will be settlements and agreements. Nothing is going to stop this train.

But—chalk one up for Anthropic for winning their case, Meta getting a favorable ruling and all the rest [1].

> won a copyright lawsuit against Claude it would suddenly not be so good at writing swift code.

I suspect Claude is going to get really good at writing Swift--Anthropic is working with Apple [2].

> …but the AI fatigue is real

You might want to get off the internet if you're already suffering from AI fatigue; things are just getting started.

[1]: "AI companies start winning the copyright fight" -- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/30/ai-techsc...

[2]: "Apple Partners With Anthropic for Claude-Powered AI Coding Platform" -- https://www.macrumors.com/2025/05/02/apple-anthropic-ai-codi...

0 comments

dangus8mo ago

> it took Microsoft 22 years to reach $10 billion in revenue

You need to adjust this figure for inflation. Microsoft became huge decades ago when money was worth more.

It’s not being on the Internet that’s giving me AI fatigue. My employer is forcing me to use it. It’s being used at the drive-thru window even. “Touch grass” isn’t a valid argument here.

This idea that AI will improve after the AI companies’ inevitable exits is one that isn’t backed by history. I’d like to have one exited unicorn company named that has a better value and/or lower cost now than its pre-exit state. YouTube? Netflix? Facebook? Uber? MongoDB? Atlassian? Slack?

It is legitimately hard to find a tech company that is a more desirable company to patronize post-exit than pre-exit.

We are so obviously in the customer acquisition phase of AI…people in this thread are talking about spending hundreds per month on AI services and I think all of those will double in price soon after large private company players like OpenAI go public or get acquired. It happened with Netflix, it happened with YouTube (more ads, YouTube Premium), it happened with Uber, the list goes on and on.

alwillisOP8mo ago

> We are so obviously in the customer acquisition phase of AI…people in this thread are talking about spending hundreds per month on AI services and I think all of those will double in price soon after large private company players like OpenAI go public or get acquired.

I guess it remains to be seen, but the cost for tokens is only going to decrease, not increase. Also, remember that OpenAI and Anthropic get a lot of revenue from large companies licensing and otherwise paying to use these models.

dangus8mo ago

But OpenAI and Anthropic are not profitable. They are getting lots of revenue but we don’t even know if that revenue is bringing them closer to profitability. For all we know they are selling $2 bills for $1.

“It’ll only get cheaper” until it doesn’t.

Moore’s law is already dead in the context of the underlying hardware manufacturing technology that powers AI. Once neural processor design reaches an end state we can’t count on any significant lithography breakthroughs powering a reduction in cost.

For example, graphics cards aren’t getting cheaper, and if they are, certainly not very quickly. A lot of consumer electronics categories key to prior tech booms like laptops and workstations aren’t getting cheaper or aren’t getting cheaper/faster very quickly.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsalwillis8mo ago0 comments

> And at the bottom it’s revealed that this costs $200/month.

I started with the pay-as-you go plan; I'm currently using the Claude Pro plan at $20/month which is great for my use case.

> And none of these AI companies are profitable. Imagine how much it will cost or how much it will be enshittified when the investors come looking for their returns.

I suspect investors will give AI companies a lot of runway. OpenAI went from $0 to over $10 billion in revenue in less than 3 years. I know that's not a profit but it bodes well for the future.

(As an aside, it took Microsoft 22 years to reach $10 billion in revenue.)

Anthropic went from $0 in 2021 to over $4 billion in about 3 years.

In comparison, it took Twitter about eleven years after its founding in 2006 to become profitable in 2017. And for much of that time, Twitter didn't have a viable business model.

I don't think investors are concerned.

Regarding lawsuits, I'm sure the AI companies will win some and lose some. Either way, after all is said and done, there will be settlements and agreements. Nothing is going to stop this train.

But—chalk one up for Anthropic for winning their case, Meta getting a favorable ruling and all the rest [1].

> won a copyright lawsuit against Claude it would suddenly not be so good at writing swift code.

I suspect Claude is going to get really good at writing Swift--Anthropic is working with Apple [2].

> …but the AI fatigue is real

You might want to get off the internet if you're already suffering from AI fatigue; things are just getting started.

[1]: "AI companies start winning the copyright fight" -- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/30/ai-techsc...

[2]: "Apple Partners With Anthropic for Claude-Powered AI Coding Platform" -- https://www.macrumors.com/2025/05/02/apple-anthropic-ai-codi...

0 comments

dangus8mo ago

> it took Microsoft 22 years to reach $10 billion in revenue

You need to adjust this figure for inflation. Microsoft became huge decades ago when money was worth more.

It’s not being on the Internet that’s giving me AI fatigue. My employer is forcing me to use it. It’s being used at the drive-thru window even. “Touch grass” isn’t a valid argument here.

It is legitimately hard to find a tech company that is a more desirable company to patronize post-exit than pre-exit.

alwillisOP8mo ago

dangus8mo ago

“It’ll only get cheaper” until it doesn’t.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse