Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems.
This is a non-starter for tens of millions of households. Not just the range, but the low end of the range, which approaches the cost of a new car. Lots of people will look at this, and say, "No thanks, I can get 2 or 3 window-mounted ACs at Walmart for a fraction of the price."
Four years ago when we got a heat pump/mini split the cost was at the low end of the range, but sweetened with a state loan program with 0% interest for the life of the loan. No brainer. I doubt those incentives exist in the current rate environment.
Two separate systems.
That's about 1/2 of the "minimum" cited above, and it's for 2 buildings.
This is so similar to the EV panic.
I'm not sure if the article is LLM slop, I only scanned it. But I agree with the main point that it's not the tech holding this back, it's the US population.
I also bought a 2 year old used Nissan Leaf (w/ 15K miles) for $15K. I charge it at home.
Neither of these purchases broke the bank. And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years. Maybe American's should learn to multiply. Then the cost of something over time will make it's adoption a clear winner.
The resistance to electrification is one of the US's biggest self inflicted wounds (after actual gunshot wounds of course).
how much did you save on your bills a month?
Comparing the cost of a heat pump to window AC units is missing the point since, as you're well aware, a heat pump provides both cooling and heating. A homeowner who is considering a heat pump is almost certainly replacing a gas furnace and/or a central AC system. When you factor in the cost of replacing two systems with one, plus higher effiency gains/lower operating costs, and money back on rebates, heat pumps can be cost competitive.
Massachusetts (where this study was done) is still offering generous incentives as well as 0% financing through the Mass Save program.
Further even if you undersize your heat pump to only 70% of the max heating power, then you still will get out 99% from your heating from the heat pump on average.
We have whole-house backup batteries, which we can charge with a generator for longer outages (we also have solar in summer, but the sun doesn't get above the trees in the winter). The batteries/generator would have to be much bigger to replace that furnace with a heat pump. They will power the propane furnace (mainly the forced-air part). About 1/3 of our heating is firewood, but during deep cold spells, it's hard to keep it above ~55°F in rooms other than the one with the fireplace without help from the furnace.
We do plan to install a mini-split system before too long, and use that when we do have electricity, relegating the central propane furnace to power outages. We already use an evaporative cooler for cooling, which uses far less electricity than AC. We'll only use the AC function of the mini-splits when we have a lot of smoke from wildfires in the area (evaporative coolers blow in lots of outside air).
https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/technical%20resources/...
I'm doing it to minimize the growth of utility cost in the future. The only reason it's not wide spread is inertia and poorly informed consumers.
This only reason this works for me is a large investment in insulation.
Investing in insulation, renewable energy, and heat pumps. That is all it takes.
With that said, depending on your latitude and climate, non electric backup heat might be necessary (to your point, a fossil gas furnace). Depends on your home envelope thermal efficiency (how long can it maintain heat without additional input or solely with solar input during the day), electrical utility reliability, etc.
This second, the large capital cost from ground excavation or drilling, etc, means heat pumps really only make sense and will see adoption in new houses, not existing houses. At least in places where it actually gets cold regularly. I expect much stronger adoption where simple above ground units are feasible.
So for heat pumps to work in the northern parts of the USA (say, Minnesota/Wisconsin/etc) they cannot just be pumping heat from the air. They require geothermal loops.
So that's the two problems I described: weather a heat pump will work for your region of the USA is a complex issue. It's safer and easier to just pick a normal heating system. This uncertainty makes choosing heat pumps less likely in marginal climates like, say, Iowa. Of course this doesn't apply to places, like, say, Texas, which only get brief minor cold. Adoption of heat pumps there is straightforwards.
The follow on is that if you still want a heat pump in the cold parts of the USA you need a ground loop heat pump. And that has a very high initial capital cost, which means they basically only get put in during initial construction, not as add-ons to existing houses.
When you are making repairs on your house over $10k, and you interview the top contractors in your area with great reviews, very few 0 star reviews. They all say this technology is not really practical.
It’s really hard knowing that everyone is having a great experience having their home fixed by these contractors that all advise you not to do something, to turn around and hire someone who is registered as a Daikin reseller and has an unacceptable number of 1 star reviews.
Heat pump companies have to have decent partners in the field willing to sell their product before consumers are really going to risk spending so much money on their product.
I assume in Canada you needed a geo-thermal loop.
That runs about $30k avg, you'll break even in 10 years.
Investing that money would prove financially better.
Even a 2% low-risk investment would net $6,421 in 10 years.
Also it seems they have a lifespan of 15-20 years so you have to account for depreciation of the system.
It doesn't make much sense to switch, new installations or replacing failing systems are the only scenarios I see where it does.
It’s good down to -30C
although you'll get heatwaves sometimes, it's not worth it overall.
similarly, although these may be more efficient than what you already have, it costs money upfront to install new stuff. money people don't have.
