IMO #3. They'll moan for a bit. Continue firing rockets. A couple weeks of this; Iran will claim that Iran won, Israel will claim Israel won. There won't be negotiations or concessions. They'll continue trying to develop nukes, but these past two weeks has set them back years. Things go quiet. In ten years we'll do this all over again.

The thing people seem to not recognize is: There's basically three countries on the planet capable of actually waging war in the 21st century (US, and Russia/China barely). Every other country is just a proxy for one of these three; their domestic capabilities look more like "throwing a tantrum" than actual war. Israel can't wage war without the US. Iran can't wage war without China/Russia. Currently, the superpower contribution to this fight is just dropping some bombs and diverting a few crates of AK-47s.

There's zero capability for long-term war here. But, there's also too much face-saving for negotiations or concessions to happen. So, the fire mostly quenches into embers; like the middle east has always been.

Medvedev wrote on social media today that “Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads”.

If there’s anything to that statement, things are likely to remain messy.

Worldwide, it’s always the presidents who need to cling to power to avoid accountability.

We already pulled the “they have WMDs” card, despite significant credibility problems.

We have a completely inexperienced 22 year old in charge of terrorism prevention at a time when any act of terrorism against the US would be a nightmarish scenario for escalation.

To me it looks as though we sent the invitation and left a note that the front door is unlocked.

#5. The US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will look for a proxy to fight Iran. China to determine if it should back Iran or not.

     Timeline of previous events
     2006  – Hezbollah–Israel War: Iran arms Hezbollah during the 34-day conflict with Israel.
     2010  – Stuxnet cyberattack: U.S. and Israel deploy malware against Iran’s Natanz uranium centrifuges.
     2020  – Assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by Trump who orders drone strike that kills the IRGC Quds commander
     2021  – Houthi–Saudi Escalation: Iran-backed Houthis use drones and missiles against Saudi Arabia.
     2022  – Iran supplies thousands of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones to support Russia’s war in Ukraine and transfer technology to Russia 
     2023  – Iran-backed Hamas conducts large-scale attack against Israel who responds with major military operations in Gaza.
     2025  – Israel and the US bomb Iran’s nuclear sites

Trump’s now posting about regime change

Watch the last episode of SILO.

> Dan is a congressman, and what journalist Helen really wants from him is information. She’s particularly interested in a “dirty bomb”—particularly, whether the rumors of one exploding in New Orleans are real, or merely fabricated to advance a war between America and Iran. Dan doesn’t answer, instead choosing to leave. It’s all vague, but it gives the viewer a chance to piece some details together: It was likely the bomb and the escalation of a war between America and Iran that led to the creation of the silos.

https://time.com/7206478/silo-season-2-finale-explained/