undefined | Better HN

0 pointsbawolff1y ago0 comments

I don't think anyone is suggesting invading with boots on the ground. It would be a blood bath, as you say, and nobody seems interested in that.

I suspect what Israel is hoping for is that if they disrupt Iranian internal security enough, Iran wont be able to put down protestors. In the past there have been protests that Iran had to put down violently, so its not crazy. At the same time, hard to imagine anyone going out to protest while bombs are falling, and external threats tend to increase support for incumbants. So probably a long shot.

What they will probably settle for is blowing up their nuke stuff and missles, hoping that the economic disruption of the war is enough that its too expensive for iran to rebuild it.

Of course, nobody really knows.

0 comments

2 comments · 1 top-level

csomar1y ago· 1 in thread

No, if you disrupt the current regime, you get something more extreme akin to ISIS. You can negotiate a peace deal with Iran, but you can't negotiate a peace deal with 50+ Islamic factions each running its own territory. That would require boots of the ground; and that's what the current leadership is looking for.

The parent poster is correct. It is much easier to convince you into this if I tell you "We can solve the middle-east issues with just one click(bomb)!". That would get people in a FOMO where we have to act NOW and have this resolved quick and easy; or choose to be complacent and lose this opportunity.

Of course we don't know how this will play out since we don't have any history except for the last 50+ years or so.

bawolffOP1y ago

> You can negotiate a peace deal with Iran, but you can't negotiate a peace deal with 50+ Islamic factions each running its own territory

50+ islamic factions are unlikely to be able to coordinate enough to produce advanced weapons. While its an unideal outcome, its not clear that it would be worse from the israeli perspective, and they are the ones dropping bombs.

> Of course we don't know how this will play out since we don't have any history except for the last 50+ years or so.

There are plenty of examples historically of coups and popular revolutions where the new gov takes over the existing state roughly in-tact. There are also many examples of what you are saying where the country decends into a civil war. If you want to use history as a guide i think you need to analyze things more closely.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse