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0 pointstomrod11mo ago0 comments

AGI may not be impossible. But next token prediction won't get us there.

0 comments

It's actually really unclear that this is true. If you brought GPT-o3 back to 1990 I have a hard time believing the world wouldn't immediately consider it full AGI.

ACCount3611mo ago

If you told a person from 1990 that in the year 2025, they have this thing, and described OpenAI's o3 - strengths, flaws and all? That person would say "yep, your sci-fi future of year 2025 has actual AI!"

But if someone managed to actually make o3 in year 1990? Not in some abstact sci-fi future, but actually there, available broadly, as something you could access from your PC for a small fee?

People would say "well, it's not ackhtually intelligent because..."

Because people are incredibly stupid, and AI effect is incredibly powerful.

vonneumannstan11mo ago

I'm very confident that if someone in 1990 used o3 they would be absolutely astonished and would not pull the 'well actually' thing you think they would.

ACCount3611mo ago

Nah, AI effect is far too powerful. Wishful thinking of this kind is simply irresistible.

In real life, AI beating humans at chess didn't change the perception of machine intelligence for the better. It changed the perception of chess for the worse.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

vonneumannstan11mo ago

It's actually really unclear that this is true. If you brought GPT-o3 back to 1990 I have a hard time believing the world wouldn't immediately consider it full AGI.

ACCount3611mo ago

But if someone managed to actually make o3 in year 1990? Not in some abstact sci-fi future, but actually there, available broadly, as something you could access from your PC for a small fee?

People would say "well, it's not ackhtually intelligent because..."

Because people are incredibly stupid, and AI effect is incredibly powerful.

vonneumannstan11mo ago

I'm very confident that if someone in 1990 used o3 they would be absolutely astonished and would not pull the 'well actually' thing you think they would.

ACCount3611mo ago

Nah, AI effect is far too powerful. Wishful thinking of this kind is simply irresistible.

In real life, AI beating humans at chess didn't change the perception of machine intelligence for the better. It changed the perception of chess for the worse.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse