That's good to hear that I'm foolish. It's always nice to be foolish.
Foolishness aside, all we have to predict the future is the current capabilities of the current technology. Bear and bull alike do this. This is the reason people believe we are closer to AGI than say couple of years ago. I have no idea how close or far off we are. What I'm interested in is the current and predictable near future capabilities of the technology.