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0 pointssatellite210mo ago0 comments

Thanks a lot for this research. Seing the comments here I think it's really important to make breakthroughs and progress more visible to the public. Otherwise the impression that "we're always 50 years away" stays strong.

Here was my completely layman attempt to forecast fusion viability a few months ago. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42791997 (in short: 2037)

Is there some semblance of realism there you think?

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mchusma10mo ago

In the 2037 timeframe, modeling trends doesn’t matter as much as looking at the actual players. I think odds are good because you have at least 4 very well funded groups shooting to have something before 2035: commercial groups including CFS, Helios, TAE, also the efforts by ITER. Maybe more. Each with generally independent approaches. I think scientific viability will be proven by 2035, but getting economic viability could take much longer.

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0 pointssatellite210mo ago0 comments

Here was my completely layman attempt to forecast fusion viability a few months ago. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42791997 (in short: 2037)

Is there some semblance of realism there you think?

0 comments

mchusma10mo ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse