Personally, deep research and o3 have been transformative, taking LLMs from something I have never used to something that I am using daily.
Even if the progress ends up plateauing (which I do not believe will happen in the near term), behaviors are changing; OpenAI is capturing users, and taking them from companies like Google. Google may be able to fight back and win - Gemini 2.5 Pro is great - but any company sitting this out risks being unable to capture users back from Open AI at a later date.
Why? I paid for Claude for a while, but with Deepseek, Gemini and the free hits on Mistral, ChatGPT, Claude and Perplexity I'm not sure why I would now. This is anecdotal of course, but I'm very rarely unique in my behaviour. I think the best the subscription companies can hope for is that their subscribers don't realize that Deepseek and Gemini can basically do all you need for free.
I cannot stress this enough: if you know what Deepseek, Claude, Mistral, and Perplexity are, you are not a typical consumer.
Arguably, if you have used a single one of those brands you are not a typical consumer.
The vast majority of people have used ChatGPT and nothing else, except maybe clicking on Gemini or Meta AI by accident.
They might not “know” the brand as well as ChatGPT, but the average consumer has definitely been exposed to those at the very least.
DeepSeek also made a lot of noise, to the point that, anecdotally, I’ve seen a lot of people outside of tech using it.
If every major player had an AI option, i'm just not understanding how because OpenAi moved first or got big first, the hugely massively successful companies that did the same thing for multiple decades don't have the same advantage?
1. OpenAI is apparently in the process of building a social network.
2. OpenAI is apparently working with Jonny Ive on some sort of hardware.
3. OpenAI is increasingly working on "memory" as a LLM feature. Users may be less likely to switch as an LLM increasingly feels like a person that knows you, understands you, has a history with you, etc.
4. Google and MSFT are leveraging their existing strengths. Perhaps you will stick with Gemini given deep integration with Android, Google Drive, Sheets, Docs, etc.
5. LLMs, as depressing as this sounds, will increasingly be used for romantic/friend purposes. These users may not want to switch, as it would be like breaking up and finding a new partner.
6. Your chat history, if it can't be easily exported/imported, may be a sticky feature, especially if it can be improved (e.g. easily search, cross-reference, chats, like a supercharged interconnecting note app with brains).
I could list 100 more of these. Perhaps none of the above will happen, but again, they have 400M weekly users and they will find ways to keep them. It's a lot easier to keep users that have a habit of showing up, then getting them in the first place. There's a reason that Google is treating this like an emergency; they are at serious risk of having their search cash cow permanently disrupted if they don't act fast to win.
#5 stands out as well as a substantial barrier.
The rest to me our sticky, but no more uniquely sticky than any other service that retains data. Like the switching cost of email or a browser. It does stick but not insurmountable and once the switch is made, it's like why did I wait so long? (I'm a Safari user!)
Anyway, thanks for the thoughtful reply.
[1] https://www.reforge.com/podcast/unsolicited-feedback/the-gre...
Google is alright, but they have similar stupid noncompete vendor lock in rule, and no way to opt out of training, so there’s no real reason to trust Google. Yeah they could ship tool use in reasoning to catch up to o3, but it’ll just be catching up and not passing unless they fix the stupid legal terms.
Claude IDK how to trust, they train on feedback and everything is feedback, and they have the noncompete rule written even more broadly, dumb to use that.
Grok has a noncompete rule but also has a way to opt out of training, so it’s on the same tier of ClosedAI. I use it sometimes for jokey toy image generation crap but there’s no way to use it for anything serious since it has a copypasted closed ai prohibition
Mistral needs better models and simpler legalese, it’s so complicated and impossible to know which of the million legal contracts applies
IMHO meta is the only player, but they shot themselves in the foot by making Llama 4 too big for the local llama community to even use, super dumb, killed their most valuable thing which was the community.
That means the best models we can use for work without needing to worry about a lawsuit, are Qwen, and DeepSeek distills, no American AI is even in the same ballpark, Gemma 3 is refusal king if you even hint at something controversial. basically, America is getting actively stomped by China in AI right now, because their stuff is open and interoperable, and ours is closed and has legal noncompete bullshit, what can we actually build that doesn’t compete with these companies? Nothing
Why are you still pretending anything is going to come out of this?
> taken it from a toy to genuinely insanely useful.
Really?
