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0 pointspjc501y ago0 comments

> What are the theatres where the US is supposed to be able to put on a strong showing? It doesn't seem to be Europe, they've got war on their doorstep and if anyone thinks the US is helping they should reflect on their reasoning

I think you have this backwards: the US was helping considerably, and then got taken over by pro-Russian conspiracy theorists.

But the bond stuff isn't "tribute" or nationalism; remember, it's being made by private sector investors, not national governments. Fairly straightforward calculation: which way is the exchange rate expected to move? Interest rate? Risk of default?

Up till now the US offered moderate interest rates, favourable direction of exchange rate movement, and imperceptible risk of default. There's still no reason to default other than madness and a desire to strap on the suicide vest and become Argentina.

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roenxi1y ago

> But the bond stuff isn't "tribute" or nationalism; remember, it's being made by private sector investors, not national governments.

Are you sure about that? Back in 2022 the US Treaury reckoned that most holdings were foreign governments [0] - they had Foreign Official at ~3.9 trillion and foreign total at ~7.5 trillion. That has been shifting towards the private sector since then but the market has heavy sovereign involvement.

> and imperceptible risk of default.

The US clearly has quite a high risk of default - there isn't a reasonable path to them paying the money back. It takes imagination to even come up with scenarios where they try. In real terms they are going to default, in nominal terms there is still a high chance that they call it a default. There is no guarantee that they'll print money for foreigners; it is already going to be farcical claiming that they're not defaulting as they devalue like mad; it is quite possible they won't bother with the act and just do the honest thing.

[0] https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-cent...

pjc50OP1y ago

> there isn't a reasonable path to them paying the money back

Indefinite rollover is completely fine! Yes there are problems if the total interest payment gets too large, and there's scope for discussion about that, but there's no hard cutoff, it just becomes more and more uncomfortable.

People saying there will be a default: deadline please. Or is this just a general assumption that mortality is inevitable for states? The UK has never defaulted, for example.

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aa-jv1y ago

>the US was helping considerably, and then got taken over by pro-Russian conspiracy theorists.

This is such a nonsense conspiracy theory. Anything "non-American" isn't by default pro-Russian, ffs.

Come on people, this nonsense has to die. You can't be that dumb. Nobody believes this excuse any more.

Maybe America is in trouble because Americans are just shit at keeping themselves safe from real harm, and Russia has nothing to do with it.

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