> So you genuinely think that if you go to the US you have a high risk of being imprisoned without due process even if you you don't break any US law?

I think that the risk of being imprisoned without due process is very low, but still substantially higher than in any other Western country, and certainly high enough not to justify the risk.

I also think that the risk of being temporarily imprisoned with due process, until they figure out that I haven't broken any law anywhere, is also very low, but still substantially higher than in most Western countries. And certainly high enough that it's not worth the risk.

I don't have an issue with border controls being a thing. I'm not a free travel idealist. I get why border controls exist, I think the premise of not letting people in unless they provably meet the host country's requirement is perfectly reasonable, and I certainly think that, even if someone did nothing wrong and just doesn't have their documentation in order, sending them back home on the first flight is an entirely reasonable thing to do. I just think that, in the current political climate, both the chances of being the victim of good old abuse and the chances of well-meaning ICE personnel screwing up are too high to be worth crossing the Atlantic for.

Lol there is no due process at the border for a simple imprisonment, it is 'administrative' and I have been held up to a day or so without any sort of hearing. I pulled my FBI record from the last time they tossed me in immigration holding cell, there is no record of it. They don't allow you to have a phone, they do not let you have an attorney, and they do not document they've imprisoned you. They lock you away and that is that, it is your word against theirs and your word from behind a jail cell. You will never prevail in such a situation, and if you complain outside of some place like HN the vast majority of people will angrily ask what you did wrong and that there 'must be more to the story' so you rarely even bring it up.

I do not think most people can conceive just how common and deranged the situation is, and that not only that the documentation is so poor and that most of the people this happens to will not speak up, either because no one will believe them or because they are not a citizen and are afraid it will result in reprisal.

From what I understand, being arrested at the U.S. border while entering the country is strictly worse than being arrested by regular police while inside the U.S. In the latter case, the police arresting you will at least read you your Miranda rights, will have no right to search your phone unless authorized by a warrant, and will generally offer bail to get out of the jail in exchange for a court appearance. That's what due process, at a minimum, entails.

None of that happens at the border.

At this stage it doesn't even matter whether you have broken any U.S. law or not.

At the border? Well, it's not a high chance in absolute terms, but the risk of being deemed to have broken the law due to visa/ESTA noncompliance is a lot higher.

I would certainly no longer do US travel for a conference on a tourist visa in case that's deemed "work". (pop quiz to Americans: what visa do I need for that situation, and how difficult is it to get?)

It doesn't have to be high to be negative EV

We have multiple examples. It happens, because the incarceration has been privatized and they have no incentive to get you out. They want to keep making more money.

If they happen to look at you on social media / somewhere on the Internet and see that you've spoken out against the current administration's policies, you might be imprisoned (based on what's happened so far). It's the new lese majeste.

Shit, I'm a US citizen flying domestic while colored and I have that fear. If you don't think that's reasonable, you're not paying attention. It's not hyperbole to say that ICE is the new Gestapo, and because international airports are considered borders and thus they have jurisdiction, they cover most of where I'd want to go to or transit through in the US.

It’s probably low enough, but if you go to a proper country it’s essentially zero, so, really, particularly for leisure travel, why take the chance?

...yes? The risk is now definitely higher (and advertised by your own administration) than in many other destinations on Earth.