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0 pointsgraemep1y ago0 comments

Yes, that is stupid. Why not apply that to the big economies that the GP comment said was 90% of the deficit. Exempt small low income countries - save a lot of people a lot of paid at little cost.

On the other hand this is a bargaining tactic. I do not think these tariffs will last.

> Instead, recall that President Trump views tariffs as generating negotiating leverage for making deals. It is easier to imagine that after a series of punitive tariffs, trading partners like Europe and China become more receptive to some manner of currency accord in exchange for a reduction of tariffs

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...

And look who wrote it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Miran "

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kevinsync1y ago

My grasp of economics is tenuous at best, but wouldn't that just encourage small, low-income countries to become middlemen who import from the US due to the low tariff and immediately export to any country looking to reduce their local US tariff rate? And then after a short while I'd imagine the US would probably either slap a 90% tariff or just ban exports entirely to that middleman country?

jfengel1y ago

He seems quite confident that we "hold all of the cards", to quote another set of international trade negotiators.

I am less confident. The domestic consequences are immediate. Many of these negotiations are with experienced and patient experts. China, in particular, is under no obligation to its people or stock market to resolve this quickly.

The tariffs may not last, but I think they will end more unilaterally than Miran does. I guess we'll reach the Finding Out stage soon enough.

graemepOP1y ago

I think the longer the US waits the relatively weaker it becomes, so the sooner the better from that point of view.

I think many people in the US, and almost everyone in Europe, has not really woken up to the extent to which their economic clout has diminished over the last few years.

People go into denial about this, as it undermines their worldview, but if you look at west vs rest GDP the change over the last few decades is huge.

andsoitis1y ago

More than half of factories in Cambodia are Chinese owned. The idea is to put pressure on China.

mitthrowaway21y ago

Pressure to move back to China where their tariff drops from 49% to 34%?

Over the past few years a lot of companies have moved production out of China and into friendlier countries like Vietnam, anticipating US pressure on China. Vietnam's tariff rate is 42%. Now they wish they'd left their production lines in China.

graemepOP1y ago

> Pressure to move back to China where their tariff drops from 49% to 34%?

That assumes the tariffs will be imposed long term.

They are intended as a bargaining measure so some compromise will be reached. it is very likely that in the long run Vietnam will pay lower tariffs.

andsoitis1y ago

> Pressure to move back to China where their tariff drops from 49% to 34%?

... and one day later, where are we? Trump is threatening China with an additional 50% unless they back down. China's response is that they will fight to the bitter end. https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/apr/08/stock-...

Who will win this battle? Or will it be a war? Which philosophical worldview do you prefer?

rayiner1y ago

> Yes, that is stupid. Why not apply that to the big economies that the GP comment said was 90% of the deficit. Exempt small low income countries - save a lot of people a lot of paid at little cost.

I suspect Trump is focused on a simple and aggressive message aimed at our largest trading partners, and doesn’t want to dilute it by making exceptions out of the gate.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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kevinsync1y ago

jfengel1y ago

He seems quite confident that we "hold all of the cards", to quote another set of international trade negotiators.

The tariffs may not last, but I think they will end more unilaterally than Miran does. I guess we'll reach the Finding Out stage soon enough.

graemepOP1y ago

I think the longer the US waits the relatively weaker it becomes, so the sooner the better from that point of view.

I think many people in the US, and almost everyone in Europe, has not really woken up to the extent to which their economic clout has diminished over the last few years.

People go into denial about this, as it undermines their worldview, but if you look at west vs rest GDP the change over the last few decades is huge.

andsoitis1y ago

More than half of factories in Cambodia are Chinese owned. The idea is to put pressure on China.

mitthrowaway21y ago

Pressure to move back to China where their tariff drops from 49% to 34%?

graemepOP1y ago

> Pressure to move back to China where their tariff drops from 49% to 34%?

That assumes the tariffs will be imposed long term.

They are intended as a bargaining measure so some compromise will be reached. it is very likely that in the long run Vietnam will pay lower tariffs.

andsoitis1y ago

> Pressure to move back to China where their tariff drops from 49% to 34%?

Who will win this battle? Or will it be a war? Which philosophical worldview do you prefer?

rayiner1y ago

> Yes, that is stupid. Why not apply that to the big economies that the GP comment said was 90% of the deficit. Exempt small low income countries - save a lot of people a lot of paid at little cost.

I suspect Trump is focused on a simple and aggressive message aimed at our largest trading partners, and doesn’t want to dilute it by making exceptions out of the gate.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse