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0 pointsTeever1y ago0 comments

As I understand it SpaceX has launched 500 rockets and many of these rockets were reusable so the number of rockets that they've manufactured over the 25 years that they've been in business is far less than 500.

If you take a look at page 8 of this pdf[0] you'll see that the wargames predict that hundreds of missiles will be used in the first few weeks of an engagement between China and the US over Taiwan. Page 10 will curdle your blood as you'll see that they anticipate to lose dozens of ships including two(!) aircraft carriers. Page 11 shows hundreds of losses of various aircraft.

SpaceX will not save those lives and they will not be able to replace the equipment in time for a second engagement with China.

Take a look at a previous comment that I wrote about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42391816

[0] https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites...

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weard_beard1y ago

I read your comment and the pdf and I guess my question is answered. “No, we did not consider asymmetric and possibly massively impactful scenarios like control of low earth orbit munitions deployed on a massive scale.”

TeeverOP1y ago

I interpreted your question as asking if the US could use SpaceX's rocket manufacturing capacity to produce ICBMs that could be used to hit Chinese ships.

Now that I see that this was not what you're suggesting I don't think that two years is a sufficient time frame to build, test, and deploy the kinds of weapons that you're suggesting.

It seems like America is sleep walking into a horrible conflict with China and this combined with all of the soft power that America is losing in the past few months doesn't bode well for the outcome of this conflict.

weard_beard1y ago

That’s where I’d start looking for advantage.

hedora1y ago

It’s not particularly asymmetric. China has ICBMS and is upwind from the US. It’s hard to imagine non-civilization-ending conflicts where dropping space rocks on China comes into play.

weard_beard1y ago

Imagine harder.

TeeverOP1y ago

Can you describe in greater detail what you're imagining?

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weard_beard1y ago

TeeverOP1y ago

I interpreted your question as asking if the US could use SpaceX's rocket manufacturing capacity to produce ICBMs that could be used to hit Chinese ships.

Now that I see that this was not what you're suggesting I don't think that two years is a sufficient time frame to build, test, and deploy the kinds of weapons that you're suggesting.

weard_beard1y ago

That’s where I’d start looking for advantage.

hedora1y ago

It’s not particularly asymmetric. China has ICBMS and is upwind from the US. It’s hard to imagine non-civilization-ending conflicts where dropping space rocks on China comes into play.

weard_beard1y ago

Imagine harder.

TeeverOP1y ago

Can you describe in greater detail what you're imagining?

2 more replies

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse