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0 pointsrunarberg0y ago0 comments

I know this is HN and we love these simplistic universal laws here (Hanlon's razor being another beloved law) but Occam’s razor isn’t really applicable here, or at the very least, it isn’t very helpful, and it certainly isn’t conclusive. That he was exfiltrated by the Chinese government also requires the same number of variables as that he was disappeared by the American government. So Occam’s Razor actually suggests nothing here.

Occam’s razor is a rule of thumb which suggests that if several hypotheses explain the same thing, the simplest one should be favored. When we have a missing person with several unknown variables, until we see some evidence, any guess is as good as other. And no hypotheses should be ruled out.

On HN we also like Bayesian analysis, so instead of looking for the simplest explenation, we should be asking what we already know. What is the probability that this person was disappeared by the government, given that 3 other students have been disappeared by the government lately? Given that these 3 other students were also people of color? Etc.

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aerostable_slug0y ago

> 3 other students have been disappeared by the government

If you're talking about the students I think you are, they're detained in Louisiana and Texas. They haven't been "disappeared" in any way.

trod12340y ago

Just an FYI, you do know that Hanlon's Razor isn't a law, or even a rule of thumb.

It was a joke in a joke book, and has been taken entirely out of context by most people who use it to justify anything.

runarbergOP0y ago

haha, I did not know that. The first time I saw it, it was actually used against my point here on HN.

trod12340y ago

I didn't either at first, I went and looked it up after enough people started using it to nullify/discredit what I had to say in serious conversation.

Murphy's Law Book 2, January 24, 1980 A book of jokes, meant to be humorous.

No previous literature related to it before then.

I can't help but laugh when people use it now, so I guess its still funny... in a way.

It says a lot about the character of a person that takes a joke and uses it in a way, that it was never intended to be used. Useful knowledge to keep in your back pocket if needed.

echoangle0y ago

> When we have a missing person with several unknown variables, until we see some evidence, any guess is as good as other.

Really? So that he was abducted by aliens is also on the table and has the same probability?

Obviously there can be some prior information that makes „he was exfiltrated by Chinese intelligence services“ more likely than „he was disappeared by US intelligence services“.

I’m not saying there is, but philosophically, you don’t need to know anything more than „A person with relations to china disappeared“ to be able to determine one hypothesis as the most likely one.

dmix0y ago

> Obviously there can be some prior information that makes „he was exfiltrated by Chinese intelligence services“ more likely than „he was disappeared by US intelligence services"

The obvious one being if the FBI is arresting a spy they would not be doing search warrants on his properties weeks after he goes missing. They do that stuff immediately.

Instead if we're speculating, this far more sounds like the FBI are playing catch up to circumstances that became suspicious after a few weeks.

runarbergOP0y ago

I answered the exfiltration likelihood in a sibling thread. The summary is that spies are very rare and it is not a likely explanation. Keeping the Bayesian hat on we can pretty much rule out aliens. We have never witnessed an alien abduction, so the chances of this being an alien abduction is actually infinitely smaller than exfiltration.

We can set the same prior probability to all the possibilities, that is fine. But given the evidence the posterior for alien abduction is very close to 0, if not just simply 0.

Given the recent pattern of behavior from the US government, we have seen quite a few people disappeared. The posterior for US government involvement is IMO much higher than exfiltration. That said, no government involvement is higher still (and is actually the hypothesis favored by Occam’s Razor).

this_user0y ago

Wrapping your conspiracy theories into pseudo-science based on wild guesses doesn't make them more likely.

There is a long series of scientists in the US that were secretly working for the Chinese government. It is simply the most likely explanation that this is another instance of that.

It also doesn't make any sense that the US government would secretly "disappear", as you put it, this individual while they are openly deporting thousands elsewhere, often based on flimsy evidence. Furthermore, if you are secretly getting rid of someone, you do it to avoid taking responsibility. Why would you send the FBI to raid their residence afterwards? That immediately connects you to the disappearance, thereby sabotaging your own scheme.

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lazyeye0y ago

Nah...exfiltration does sound like the most likely scenario (to anyone with commonsense).

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0 pointsrunarberg0y ago0 comments

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aerostable_slug0y ago

> 3 other students have been disappeared by the government

If you're talking about the students I think you are, they're detained in Louisiana and Texas. They haven't been "disappeared" in any way.

trod12340y ago

Just an FYI, you do know that Hanlon's Razor isn't a law, or even a rule of thumb.

It was a joke in a joke book, and has been taken entirely out of context by most people who use it to justify anything.

runarbergOP0y ago

haha, I did not know that. The first time I saw it, it was actually used against my point here on HN.

trod12340y ago

I didn't either at first, I went and looked it up after enough people started using it to nullify/discredit what I had to say in serious conversation.

Murphy's Law Book 2, January 24, 1980 A book of jokes, meant to be humorous.

No previous literature related to it before then.

I can't help but laugh when people use it now, so I guess its still funny... in a way.

It says a lot about the character of a person that takes a joke and uses it in a way, that it was never intended to be used. Useful knowledge to keep in your back pocket if needed.

echoangle0y ago

> When we have a missing person with several unknown variables, until we see some evidence, any guess is as good as other.

Really? So that he was abducted by aliens is also on the table and has the same probability?

Obviously there can be some prior information that makes „he was exfiltrated by Chinese intelligence services“ more likely than „he was disappeared by US intelligence services“.

dmix0y ago

> Obviously there can be some prior information that makes „he was exfiltrated by Chinese intelligence services“ more likely than „he was disappeared by US intelligence services"

The obvious one being if the FBI is arresting a spy they would not be doing search warrants on his properties weeks after he goes missing. They do that stuff immediately.

Instead if we're speculating, this far more sounds like the FBI are playing catch up to circumstances that became suspicious after a few weeks.

runarbergOP0y ago

We can set the same prior probability to all the possibilities, that is fine. But given the evidence the posterior for alien abduction is very close to 0, if not just simply 0.

this_user0y ago

Wrapping your conspiracy theories into pseudo-science based on wild guesses doesn't make them more likely.

There is a long series of scientists in the US that were secretly working for the Chinese government. It is simply the most likely explanation that this is another instance of that.

1 more reply

lazyeye0y ago

Nah...exfiltration does sound like the most likely scenario (to anyone with commonsense).

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