> They're too smart for mass murder because that would actually spark a resistance

I don't think they're too smart for that. They're too lazy. They prefer to just gut public health and let disease take care of the culling.

> What I think will happen is the US tries to mimic China by creating an even lower class of our workers that form a new industrial/manufacturing base to compete with.

Still too optimistic on how long-term the American approach will be. There won't be a UBI, the oligarchy will be paid directly from government coffers. The deficit, bonds and other government instruments will paper over the collapse of tax-revenue and population for a while, before the whole house of cards collapses[1]. I think the billionaires hope to be in space habitats or dead by then, if not, there's always their bunkers in New Zealand - their cache of gold bars should still work there after they ravage the USD. Capital knows no borders.

1. See late 1990s Russia. Only simple, extractive industries will chug along.