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0 pointskragen1y ago0 comments

Do you have reasoning to support this improbable conjunction, or are you just seeking to bet money?

0 comments

The strategic interests of the US stay the same. All of this is posturing which will only improve the alliance which the US leads. Carrot or stick, this president or that president, certain things don’t change. All that changes is the implementation.

kragenOP1y ago

John Bolton, Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Wesley Clark, and Justin Trudeau seem to be unanimous in their assessment that the things you are saying "don't change" just changed. Of course they could be wrong, or lying, but they certainly aren't acting in concert.

Chance-Device1y ago

Look what’s happened: the Europeans are now unanimous on the idea that European rearmament is necessary for survival, and have a political environment that allows them to sell that idea to their electorates. Electorates that historically have been opposed to spending on military over healthcare and social programs.

And once that rearmament happens, or is underway to an extent that it’s irreversible, what is the US going to do?

They’ll simply resume the same leadership position they always held, but now over a greatly reinforced alliance. And the Europeans will say, thank goodness the US is back. Aren’t we all safer now.

justin661y ago

> They’ll simply resume the same leadership position they always held, but now over a greatly reinforced alliance.

As a practical matter, if things deteriorate to the point that the office of NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe stops being held by the commander of US European Command - it looks like things might be trending in that direction now that NATO countries are holding meetings without the US and intelligence sharing is starting to break down, never mind whatever the US means when it talks about "withdrawing" from Europe - Humpy Dumpty is broken. Whatever organization the US might join again in the future, or even somehow attempt to "lead," will be fundamentally different than what has gone before.

kragenOP1y ago

You seem to be assuming that the US will automatically do the things that are in its strategic interest, as if it were not only a conscious being but a skilled strategist, even as you point out how the internal political dynamics of European countries do not result in such an outcome. I don't think the future is so predictable, and particularly not with that model.

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justin661y ago

I don't feel fantastic about having sort of predicted this outcome in my other comment below:

Trump admin considers giving up NATO command that has been exclusively American since Eisenhower

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-adm...

I don't think the author was interested in fully exploring what this news really means.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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Chance-Device1y ago

kragenOP1y ago

Chance-Device1y ago

And once that rearmament happens, or is underway to an extent that it’s irreversible, what is the US going to do?

justin661y ago

> They’ll simply resume the same leadership position they always held, but now over a greatly reinforced alliance.

kragenOP1y ago

1 more reply

justin661y ago

I don't feel fantastic about having sort of predicted this outcome in my other comment below:

Trump admin considers giving up NATO command that has been exclusively American since Eisenhower

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-adm...

I don't think the author was interested in fully exploring what this news really means.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse