given the extreme 'benefits' of autonomous weapons (cheap, can be produced in arbitrary numbers, easier logistics, fewer parents mourning their children in your country, vastly easier production), we should expect them to be fielded before they are really ready.

Id agree with ten years to never for a 1:1 100% replacement - but Im not sure that is the required threshold for drones to replace a development budget item for upgrading to an next x-gen manned fighter.