On the F-35 program, ability to perform local support isn't so much based on being a "founding member" but rather program partnership level. The only other Level 1 partner is the UK. As Level 2 we have Italy and the Netherlands. All other countries are down at Level 3 (most heavily dependent on US support), except for Israel which is sort of a special case with a unique variant and special rules about local control. Ultimately though, you're correct that the F-35 will quickly turn into a brick for every export customer without active US support.

The other factor is the NATO nuclear sharing arrangement. The F-35A is the only new aircraft certified to carry the US nuclear weapons under that arrangement, so that impacts Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Netherlands. Germany looked into certifying the Eurofighter Typhoon for the nuclear strike mission but decided that they couldn't afford it, and bought the F-35A instead. Of course, if the US pulls back from NATO and ends nuclear sharing then that concern would become moot and some of those countries would be likely to develop their own nuclear weapons.

Europe can't even maintain some Eurofighter fleets without US support. The Austrian model for example needs a crypto key for secure communications from a US company for every flight.

There are still doubts as to whether the new Trumpian reality is permanent. Politicians in Europe are still hoping that this is all a bad dream. So I guess the orders will somehow (by delaying payments, inventing some requirements, finding problems in deliveries that have to be endlessly discussed and fixed, ...) be delayed for 4 years. If the next president is still looking as anti-European as Trump, orders will for sure be cancelled.

Australia ought to start paying tribute to China instead of USA and invest in chinese subs rather than USA ones which will never be delivered anyway

The European country best suited to support the F-35 is France. Which also isn't a member of the program due to that reason.

It is not going to happen. There is no european manufacturer or a consortium that can build a similar airplane with comparable capabilities. They can't even match the F-22 which is more than two decades old.

The only way Europe can match Russia/China is to keep buying american made weapons. Maybe in 20-30 years the situation will be different and Europe will have the same capabilities of the US, but until then... buy, baby, buy!

Europe is developing 6th Gen fighter(s) already though. And yes, Europe produces a 5th Gen fighter. The f35 is made only in USA and Italy, although I share the worries on having a potentially brickable device

5th gen is a nonsense marketing term. It is far less about the plane itself and more about how it integrates into a force. This is why russian figthers are pretty useless: they are not integrated with the rest of the force and they lack coordination. The russians do not even have the ability to discriminate between their own planes and enemy planes when making decisions to launch AA missiles.

I think Russian capabilities depends almost entirely on who the US and China are willing to sell weapons to — Russia has huge corruption problems, arguably this is why they were dumb enough to not only start a war but also why they weren't able to actually pull off a blitzkrieg against Ukraine, so I don't think Russia will be able to combine high volume and high quality for anything any time soon.

EU industrial capabilities may also have issues, but they are (mostly) different ones than Russia faces.

Russia doesn’t have air superiority in Ukraine and they chose the time and place of the war.

That's the thing - having F-35s doesn't mean any more you actually have them, even though you paid through your teeth for them.

The Russian aviation industry has a terrible track record on delivering new aircraft.

Russia already lost Su-57 in Ukraine when ukrainians didn't even had F-16.

If.

They have less than 30 airframes, probably 30-40% have some level of operational airworthiness.

The Russians get a lot of glazing on social media about military prowess. The reality is they’re fighting a tiny, poor country, got their asses kicked early on when nobody was really helping Ukraine substantially, mostly by virtue of their own incompetence.

The Russians version of the USAF is their information operations. They’ve helped to nurture right wing shitheads in the US for decades culminating in two freakshow presidential administrations. They’ve done the same in Germany in the former GDR and in the UK with the leave wankers.

Good, can we skip the 5th gen and move towards autonomous aerial systems faster?

> Russia if they manage to mass produce Su-57 or Su-75

They can only do that if US provides them with required components

oh wait...

Can the USA make every part of the F35?

https://www.czdefence.com/article/europeanisation-of-the-f-3...: “The F-35's manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, states that currently around 25% of the F-35's components are manufactured in Europe.”

That doesn’t say the USA cannot make every part, but I think it’s likely they will have trouble producing some of them.

For example, https://simpleflying.com/how-many-international-parts-us-f-3... states the F35 has Martin Baker ejection seats and the F35B has Rolls-Royce engines.

I can't forge metal but I feel like my forks in my kitchen are mine because I can operate and maintain them until they fundamentally break. I do think that's ownership

But I agree there's more than one way to view ownership and I can see your point, even if I don't think I agree so long as the UK can truly operate it in every way, including software that might need adapting (like how I might bend my fork's prong back into shape, or out of shape for adaptations)

> Trying to reverse engineer software (the policy was that no one gets access to the original source code for the F-35[0], at least back in 2009) is probably a no-go under those agreements.

the UK made access to the source code a condition of purchase, and the technology transfer agreement was signed

in a hypothetical scenario where the US federal government falls under the direct control of a russian asset, I imagine this would end up in our allies hands reasonably quickly

> I'd expect the original agreements that were put in place--both the ones with the subcontractors as well as the purchase agreements--are quite strict on what you can do with the plane. Trying to reverse engineer software (the policy was that no one gets access to the original source code for the F-35[0], at least back in 2009) is probably a no-go under those agreements.

We're talking about Europe being able to protect itself from a potential Russian invasion despite the US bricking their F35s, and your argument is that they'd have to bend or break an agreement?

I don't think that's a big hurdle, in that eventuality.

(Reminds me a touch of this, though: :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3EBs7sCOzo )

> The original article suggests that Ukraine may end up having to replace the electronic countermeasures hardware

See my other comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43307996#43309468 Replacing the jammers shouldn't be "horrifically difficult", might still be expensive though.

Can they reverse engineer it?

It would very much so be a stopgap. Long term it's a security risk, but it's also a risk to not be able to fly your plane tomorrow.

Next national elections are the midterms in November 2026 with a new house and senate taking over in Jan 2027, 22 months time.

If the American people want to shift track they have the opportunity to actually elect a Congress which will do something.

If not it’s November 2028 for the next presidential election. Trump (if he’s still alive - he’s not exactly young or healthy) won’t be able to stand for a third term unless a constitutional ammendment is past

The Mossad is great at industrial espionage, and as the US gov alienates and lets “big balls” exfiltrate critical information, they’ll probably see advancements.

I have a copy of the original cognitive radar papers. You can find most of them, the real work is doing a real world implementation.

I’m not aware of any computer science breakthroughs required for the f35.