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0 pointsklelatti1y ago0 comments

> AMD could have ROCm perfected if they really want to.

It's not an act of will or CEO dictat. It's about hiring and incentivising the right people, putting the right structures in place etc all in the face of competing demands.

Nvidia have a huge head start and by the time AMD have 'caught up' Nvidia with it's greater resources will have moved further ahead.

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YetAnotherNick1y ago

If head start is a moat, why wouldn't you count OpenAI's headstart as moat?

klelattiOP1y ago

Because we already see firms competing effectively with OpenAI.

There is as yet no indication that AMD can match Nvidia's execution for the very good reason that doing so is extremely difficult. The head start is just the icing on the cake.

YetAnotherNick1y ago

I see pre AGI AI to be superset of search and its hard to argue that google isn't ahead technically for decades and what they are doing is extremely difficult.

dragonwriter1y ago

A head start is a moat iff you can't move easily from the leader to a competitor that catches up qualitatively; nvidia’s headstart against AMD is a moat to the extent that you can't just take the software written against NVidia GPUs and run it on AMD if AMD catches up. (That is, being currently ahead isn't a moat, but it can impose switching costs which are.)

Taking code that runs against one hosted LLM and running it against a different backend LLM is... not generally a big deal. So OpenAI being ahead—in the core model, at least—is just being ahead, its not a moat.

YetAnotherNick1y ago

ROCM is close to being perfected and I think in few years and some investment you can use it directly to run 99% software written in CUDA with similar performance.

klelattiOP1y ago

Since 2007 Nvidia has built with CUDA and compatible hardware

- a large and growing ecosystem

- a massive installed base of backwards compatible hardware

- the ability to massively scale delivery of new systems

- and lots lots more

They now have scale that enables them to continue to invest at a level that no competition can do.

None of these are easily reproduced.

As per SemiAnalysis AMD in late 2024 can’t get essential software working reliably out of the box.

It’s easy to say AMD ‘is close to perfecting ROCM’ the reality of competing with Nvidia is much harder.

1 more reply

PKop1y ago

Not all industries or product segments are equal is the obvious answer. The point here whether one agrees or not is models are easier to catch up to than GPUs

echelon1y ago

Anyone can make an LLM. There are hundreds of choices in the market today. Many of them are even open source.

OpenAI brings absolutely nothing unique to the table.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

YetAnotherNick1y ago

If head start is a moat, why wouldn't you count OpenAI's headstart as moat?

klelattiOP1y ago

Because we already see firms competing effectively with OpenAI.

There is as yet no indication that AMD can match Nvidia's execution for the very good reason that doing so is extremely difficult. The head start is just the icing on the cake.

YetAnotherNick1y ago

I see pre AGI AI to be superset of search and its hard to argue that google isn't ahead technically for decades and what they are doing is extremely difficult.

dragonwriter1y ago

YetAnotherNick1y ago

ROCM is close to being perfected and I think in few years and some investment you can use it directly to run 99% software written in CUDA with similar performance.

klelattiOP1y ago

Since 2007 Nvidia has built with CUDA and compatible hardware

- a large and growing ecosystem

- a massive installed base of backwards compatible hardware

- the ability to massively scale delivery of new systems

- and lots lots more

They now have scale that enables them to continue to invest at a level that no competition can do.

None of these are easily reproduced.

As per SemiAnalysis AMD in late 2024 can’t get essential software working reliably out of the box.

It’s easy to say AMD ‘is close to perfecting ROCM’ the reality of competing with Nvidia is much harder.

1 more reply

PKop1y ago

Not all industries or product segments are equal is the obvious answer. The point here whether one agrees or not is models are easier to catch up to than GPUs

echelon1y ago

Anyone can make an LLM. There are hundreds of choices in the market today. Many of them are even open source.

OpenAI brings absolutely nothing unique to the table.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse