Unfortunately Russia didn’t balkanize in 1990. The largest Soviet republic became the Russian Federation and kept its borders.

The world today would be a much safer place if 1990 Russia had split into about six independent states, each comparable to Kazakhstan or Ukraine. Hopefully that will eventually happen when Putin is gone. Imperial Russia should cease to exist like imperial Austria did. It has been a great source of misery throughout the centuries.

Western Europe still has a massive manpower advantage, before you even look at investment and . If things develop to the level where the "comfortable city dwellers" in Europe is truly threatened I don't see Russia as being anywhere near the victor (though you're correct that in that case there won't be a "victor" so much "Might Lose A Little Less"). But the goal is to push up to that limit but no beyond, at least for now.

I don't think many people are actually nationalistic zealots who want to eliminate other countries so long as theirs is technically still existent, as even a king of ashes won't have a great life compared to a mid-range billionaire today.