I think the amount of money is explained in part by hubris. People in high positions think they're at least what they earn more smart and capable than people at the bottom of the org. So its reasonable, expected, borderline obvious that a computer bot can replace that person. So you're betting on the ability of it to get rid, if not of your junior devs at least the majority of your customer support staff.

In reality people doing "menial" jobs are smart and learn and operate with a lot of nuance than people ignore given unfamiliarity or just prejudice. Do you prefer to talk to a chatbot or a real human when you have a problem, how confident are you really, that even if the bot knows what the problem is it would be able to solve it.

Lots of problems with customer care is anchored in the issue that support staff is not allowed to fix or resolve problems without escalation or attempts at keeping you from costing more money. The bot might be better at it for the company because it will frustrate you enough to give up that 30 bucks refund, idk.

Ai seems to change a lot the dynamics of corporate jobs but I haven't seen yet anything that would be a game changer outside of it. Its great for searching company unorganised and messy knowledge bases.

I think this still applies https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1888164523984470055, LLMs now are useful but we need something else for AGI.

I can't feel any cold right now at all.

On all corners people work on so many small pieces advancing what we have.

And plenty of obvious things are not here yet like a full local dev cycle aka ai uses the IDE to change code them executes it, fixes compiler issues and unit tests and then opens a pr.

Local agents/ agents having secure and selected access to our data like giving my agent read only access to my bank account and a 2factor way for it to send money.

Deepseek's reinforcement learning is also a huge new lead.

Nonetheless in parallel robots are coming too.

GenAI is getting better and better. Faster and better video and cheaper. 3D meshes, textures first GenAI ads

I predict this comment will age very, very poorly. Bookmarked.

I think the snag I feel in your argument comes from

>Computers are good at emulating intelligent behavior

Which implies that the brain is some kind of transcendent device that can backdoor physics to output incredible intelligence unique to it's magical structure.

Maybe LLMs aren't the key, but as far as we can tell the brain is also just another computer.

Everyone seems to have a different definition for AGI. Is there some kind of standard there?

precisely; however this time we will have tangible results from the ongoing AI summer; that would be generative art, and coding/writing/journalist assistants.