I'm curious what Microsoft will do in 8 months when over half of PC users will be running a Windows version that doesn't get security patches. As a comparison to your 60% figure for Windows 10, Windows 7 had around 30% market share and Windows XP had around 25% market share 8 months before their respective EOL dates. The only options I can think of are loosening the Windows 11 system requirements (dropping the TPM requirement for example) and doing something similar to the GWX program that forced Windows 7/8 users onto Windows 10, or extending the Windows 10 EOL date.
They could just disable Windows 10 through their updates or put it into some kind of read only mode. Basically a more extreme version of what they did with Windows 7 when it went EoL where they disabled wallpapers and showed a bunch of popups.