> My objection is to the claim that "most people get it wrong", if most people are being fed the underspecified problem. I think the gut reaction is not to switch, because in most comparable situations across human experience it would be a mistake (imagine a similar situation at a sketchy-looking carnival game rather than a TV show
This may have a role to play. However there is a long history of people who aren't "going off their gut", including statisticians, getting this wrong with a very high level of confidence. It seems pretty clear that there is more than just an "underspecificity" problem. If you properly specify the problem, you will get similar error levels.
