> Imagine that you’re on a television game show and the host presents you with three closed doors. Behind one of them, sits a sparkling, brand-new Lincoln Continental; behind the other two, are smelly old goats. The host implores you to pick a door, and you select door #1. Then, the host, who is well-aware of what’s going on behind the scenes, opens door #3, revealing one of the goats.
> “Now,” he says, turning toward you, “do you want to keep door #1, or do you want to switch to door #2?”
All you know is that in this particular instance the host has opened a door and offered a switch. You cannot conclude that the host always opens a door and offers a switch.
The problem as stated allows the host to offer switches only when the contestant picked the door with the prize, or only when the moon is gibbous, or only when the tide is going out. Diaconis and Gardner are completely correct to point out that the problem as stated is under specified and that the intent of the host matters.