> not sure I’d call what LLMs do intelligence

No, but it's good enough to replace some office jobs. Which forces us to ask, to what degree is intelligence--unique intelligence--required for useful production? (We can ask the same about physical strength.)

No. Before Deepseek R1, Nvidia was charging $100 for a $20 shovel in the gold rush. Now, every Fortune 100 can build an O1-level model with currently existing (and soon to be online) infra. Healthy demand for H100 and Blackwell will remain, but paying $100 for a $20 shovel is unlikely.

Nvidia will definitely stay profitable for now though, as long as Deepseek’s breakthroughs are not further improved upon. But if others find additional compression gains, Nvidia won’t recapture its old premium. Its stock hinged on 80% margins and 75% annual growth, Deepseek broke that premise.

> that would be amazing for NVDA?

It’s good for Nvidia. It’s not as good as it was before. (Assuming DeepSeek’s claims are replicable.)

DeepSeek revealed it's not as hard as previously thought; a much smaller number of less sophisticated chips was sufficient.

NVDA is too invested in training and underinvested in edge inference.